THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND INFLATION RATE IN TURKEY

Abstract

Consumer confidence index is one of the indicators that determine the course of expenditures and investments in theory. However, the consumer confidence index is not a sufficient parameter on its own and should be examined together with macroeconomic variables. In this research, the relationship between Consumer Confidence Index, Unemployment Rate and Inflation Rate in Turkey was examined with monthly data between 2007M01-2021M05 and cointegration, causality, action-response analysis. Econometric analysis results; According to the results of ADF and Zivot-Andrews unit root test, it was determined that all variables became stationary at the first difference. As a result of the Johansen cointegration test, it is seen that there is a cointegration relationship between the variables. In addition, Granger Causality/Block Externality Wald test and Toda-Yamamoto causality test based on error correction model were applied to the variables. According to the analysis, it was concluded that there is a one-way causality from the consumer confidence index to unemployment and a one-way causality from the inflation rate to the unemployment rate.